{"as_of":"2026-10-26","version":"integrada_20261026T152009Z_d7e26f","generated_at":"2026-10-27T02:16:17+00:00","license":"https://electorallab.com/aviso-legal.html","metodologia":"https://electorallab.com/metodologia.html","simulaciones":10000,"pregunta":"¿En qué provincias gana escaños Vox?","respuesta":"Según ElectoralLab, a 26 de octubre de 2026, Vox gana escaños centrales respecto a 2023 en 28 provincias (+34 en total); la tabla añade las provincias donde la ganancia ocurre en al menos el 25 % de las simulaciones aunque el central no cambie. Es una proyección sujeta a incertidumbre, no un resultado electoral.","fuente":"https://electorallab.com/donde-gana-escanos-vox.html","cita":"ElectoralLab, «¿En qué provincias gana escaños Vox?», 2026-10-26, https://electorallab.com/donde-gana-escanos-vox.html.","columnas":["Provincia","Escaños en 2023","Escaños centrales","Diferencia","Frecuencia de ganar escaños"],"filas":[[{"texto":"Barcelona","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-barcelona.html"},2,5,"+3","98,2 %"],[{"texto":"Madrid","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-madrid.html"},5,8,"+3","94,7 %"],[{"texto":"Murcia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-murcia.html"},2,4,"+2","95,1 %"],[{"texto":"Valencia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-valencia.html"},2,4,"+2","93,1 %"],[{"texto":"Tarragona","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-tarragona.html"},0,1,"+1","97,8 %"],[{"texto":"Santa Cruz de Tenerife","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-santa-cruz-de-tenerife.html"},0,1,"+1","97,8 %"],[{"texto":"Albacete","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-albacete.html"},0,1,"+1","95 %"],[{"texto":"Salamanca","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-salamanca.html"},0,1,"+1","93,3 %"],[{"texto":"Sevilla","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-sevilla.html"},1,2,"+1","91,8 %"],[{"texto":"Las Palmas","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-las-palmas.html"},1,2,"+1","89,4 %"],[{"texto":"Baleares","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-baleares.html"},1,2,"+1","88,6 %"],[{"texto":"León","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-leon.html"},0,1,"+1","88,2 %"],[{"texto":"Cáceres","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-caceres.html"},0,1,"+1","86,7 %"],[{"texto":"Burgos","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-burgos.html"},0,1,"+1","86 %"],[{"texto":"Almería","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-almeria.html"},1,2,"+1","82,6 %"],[{"texto":"Girona","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-girona.html"},0,1,"+1","81,2 %"],[{"texto":"Alicante","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-alicante.html"},2,3,"+1","75,5 %"],[{"texto":"Cádiz","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-cadiz.html"},1,2,"+1","74,3 %"],[{"texto":"Ávila","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-avila.html"},0,1,"+1","71 %"],[{"texto":"Toledo","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-toledo.html"},1,2,"+1","70,7 %"],[{"texto":"Cuenca","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-cuenca.html"},0,1,"+1","65,1 %"],[{"texto":"Granada","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-granada.html"},1,2,"+1","63,7 %"],[{"texto":"Zaragoza","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-zaragoza.html"},1,2,"+1","63,1 %"],[{"texto":"Málaga","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-malaga.html"},2,3,"+1","57 %"],[{"texto":"Segovia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-segovia.html"},0,1,"+1","55,7 %"],[{"texto":"A Coruña","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-a-coruna.html"},0,1,"+1","52,3 %"],[{"texto":"La Rioja","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-la-rioja.html"},0,1,"+1","40,9 %"],[{"texto":"Teruel","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-teruel.html"},0,1,"+1","37,9 %"],[{"texto":"Palencia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-palencia.html"},0,0,"+0","46,9 %"],[{"texto":"Zamora","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-zamora.html"},0,0,"+0","43,5 %"],[{"texto":"Asturias","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-asturias.html"},1,1,"+0","41,4 %"],[{"texto":"Huesca","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-huesca.html"},0,0,"+0","40,9 %"],[{"texto":"Ceuta","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-ceuta.html"},0,0,"+0","35 %"],[{"texto":"Lleida","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-lleida.html"},0,0,"+0","30,6 %"],[{"texto":"Pontevedra","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-pontevedra.html"},0,0,"+0","30,2 %"]],"contexto":["La frecuencia cuenta las simulaciones en que la candidatura obtiene en esa provincia menos (o más) diputados que en 2023. Es una medida de incertidumbre por provincia, distinta del margen D’Hondt del central.","Se comparan candidaturas y elecciones diferentes, no identidades políticas inmutables. En 2023 Podemos y Compromís estaban dentro de Sumar; la correspondencia actual incluye listas y alianzas distintas. UPN aparece en 2023 por separado y en el escenario actual dentro del PP en Navarra. También ha cambiado el número de diputados de algunas provincias."],"metricas":{"provincias_con_cambio":28,"diferencia_total":34,"frecuencias":{"Albacete":94.97,"Alicante":75.46000000000001,"Almería":82.64,"Ávila":70.95,"Baleares":88.56,"Barcelona":98.25,"Burgos":86.03,"Cáceres":86.69,"Cádiz":74.26,"A Coruña":52.31,"Cuenca":65.06,"Girona":81.17999999999999,"Granada":63.71,"Huesca":40.87,"León":88.18,"Lleida":30.620000000000005,"La Rioja":40.87,"Madrid":94.66,"Málaga":56.99999999999999,"Murcia":95.1,"Asturias":41.370000000000005,"Palencia":46.910000000000004,"Las Palmas":89.37,"Pontevedra":30.19,"Salamanca":93.33,"Santa Cruz de Tenerife":97.78,"Segovia":55.730000000000004,"Sevilla":91.82000000000001,"Tarragona":97.82,"Teruel":37.88,"Toledo":70.66,"Valencia":93.10000000000001,"Zamora":43.51,"Zaragoza":63.129999999999995,"Ceuta":35.05}},"fuentes":["https://electorallab.com/data/preguntas/resultados-2023.json"],"preguntas_complementarias":[{"pregunta":"¿Qué provincias suman diputados a Vox respecto a 2023?","respuesta":"Escenario de ElectoralLab a 26 de octubre de 2026. Cambia el central en 28 provincias (+34 escaños en total). Entre ellas: Barcelona: +3; Madrid: +3; Murcia: +2; Valencia: +2. Se compara con el escrutinio definitivo de 2023."},{"pregunta":"¿Con qué frecuencia gana Vox escaños en cada provincia?","respuesta":"Escenario de ElectoralLab a 26 de octubre de 2026. Frecuencias más altas: Barcelona: 98,2 %; Tarragona: 97,8 %; Santa Cruz de Tenerife: 97,8 %; Murcia: 95,1 %. Cuentan las simulaciones con menos (o más) diputados que en 2023 en esa provincia."}],"siguiente_paso":{"texto":"Explora el reparto de Vox en el mapa","url":"https://electorallab.com/elecciones.html?partido=VOX#congreso","detalle":"Abre el mapa con esta candidatura destacada y consulta las provincias."}}