{"as_of":"2026-10-25","version":"integrada_20261025T050344Z_9f6148","generated_at":"2026-10-25T23:17:15+00:00","license":"https://electorallab.com/aviso-legal.html","metodologia":"https://electorallab.com/metodologia.html","simulaciones":10000,"pregunta":"¿Obtiene escaño Podemos en el Congreso?","respuesta":"Según ElectoralLab, a 25 de octubre de 2026, Podemos obtiene 1 diputado en el central, con banda del 80 % de 0–6, y logra al menos uno en el 61,5 % de las simulaciones. Es una proyección sujeta a incertidumbre, no un resultado electoral.","fuente":"https://electorallab.com/entra-podemos-en-el-congreso.html","cita":"ElectoralLab, «¿Obtiene escaño Podemos en el Congreso?», 2026-10-25, https://electorallab.com/entra-podemos-en-el-congreso.html.","columnas":["Provincia","Escaños centrales","Voto estimado","Subida hasta su siguiente escaño"],"filas":[[{"texto":"Madrid","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-madrid.html"},1,"4,30 %","0,60 pp"],[{"texto":"Sevilla","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-sevilla.html"},0,"3,83 %","2,21 pp"],[{"texto":"Málaga","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-malaga.html"},0,"3,26 %","3,48 pp"],[{"texto":"Baleares","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-baleares.html"},0,"4,38 %","3,94 pp"],[{"texto":"Bizkaia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-bizkaia.html"},0,"3,24 %","4,71 pp"],[{"texto":"Murcia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-murcia.html"},0,"2,35 %","5,19 pp"],[{"texto":"A Coruña","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-a-coruna.html"},0,"3,50 %","5,23 pp"],[{"texto":"Cádiz","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-cadiz.html"},0,"3,45 %","5,23 pp"],[{"texto":"Pontevedra","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-pontevedra.html"},0,"3,85 %","5,29 pp"],[{"texto":"Asturias","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-asturias.html"},0,"3,96 %","5,52 pp"],[{"texto":"Gipuzkoa","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-gipuzkoa.html"},0,"3,14 %","6,77 pp"],[{"texto":"Granada","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-granada.html"},0,"3,09 %","7,05 pp"],[{"texto":"Córdoba","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-cordoba.html"},0,"3,69 %","7,10 pp"],[{"texto":"Zaragoza","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-zaragoza.html"},0,"2,70 %","7,43 pp"],[{"texto":"Navarra","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-navarra.html"},0,"3,60 %","7,88 pp"],[{"texto":"Álava","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-alava.html"},0,"3,70 %","8,95 pp"],[{"texto":"Almería","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-almeria.html"},0,"1,68 %","9,59 pp"],[{"texto":"Valladolid","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-valladolid.html"},0,"2,25 %","10,20 pp"],[{"texto":"Toledo","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-toledo.html"},0,"1,89 %","10,34 pp"],[{"texto":"Cantabria","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-cantabria.html"},0,"2,16 %","10,53 pp"],[{"texto":"Huelva","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-huelva.html"},0,"2,79 %","10,62 pp"],[{"texto":"Jaén","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-jaen.html"},0,"2,12 %","11,48 pp"],[{"texto":"Ciudad Real","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-ciudad-real.html"},0,"1,39 %","12,15 pp"],[{"texto":"La Rioja","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-la-rioja.html"},0,"1,67 %","12,35 pp"],[{"texto":"Ourense","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-ourense.html"},0,"1,50 %","12,66 pp"],[{"texto":"Lugo","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-lugo.html"},0,"1,41 %","12,79 pp"],[{"texto":"Badajoz","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-badajoz.html"},0,"1,72 %","12,96 pp"],[{"texto":"León","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-leon.html"},0,"1,68 %","13,66 pp"],[{"texto":"Cáceres","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-caceres.html"},0,"1,74 %","14,06 pp"],[{"texto":"Huesca","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-huesca.html"},0,"2,27 %","14,11 pp"],[{"texto":"Burgos","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-burgos.html"},0,"2,21 %","14,62 pp"],[{"texto":"Teruel","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-teruel.html"},0,"0,99 %","14,88 pp"],[{"texto":"Albacete","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-albacete.html"},0,"1,64 %","14,98 pp"],[{"texto":"Palencia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-palencia.html"},0,"1,50 %","15,60 pp"],[{"texto":"Segovia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-segovia.html"},0,"2,03 %","16,28 pp"],[{"texto":"Zamora","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-zamora.html"},0,"1,38 %","16,55 pp"],[{"texto":"Cuenca","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-cuenca.html"},0,"1,25 %","17,10 pp"],[{"texto":"Salamanca","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-salamanca.html"},0,"1,34 %","17,19 pp"],[{"texto":"Ávila","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-avila.html"},0,"1,22 %","17,45 pp"],[{"texto":"Soria","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-soria.html"},0,"0,77 %","19,37 pp"],[{"texto":"Guadalajara","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-guadalajara.html"},0,"2,13 %","19,46 pp"],[{"texto":"Ceuta","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-ceuta.html"},0,"0,50 %","25,83 pp"],[{"texto":"Melilla","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-melilla.html"},0,"0,66 %","31,13 pp"]],"contexto":["La banda es un intervalo central, no todos los resultados posibles. La entrada se calcula sobre las mismas muestras conjuntas del Congreso.","Las cifras de Podemos son las de su columna independiente. Sus aportaciones a listas conjuntas en Cataluña, Canarias y la Comunitat Valenciana se contabilizan en las candidaturas receptoras, según los supuestos del escenario.","Sensibilidad mecánica: se elevan sólo los votos de la candidatura indicada, se conservan los votos absolutos de las demás y se renormaliza el voto válido. La subida se expresa en puntos de su porcentaje resultante. Se reevalúa la barrera del 3 %; en Ceuta y Melilla se aplica la regla del más votado. Los márgenes se redondean y los empates requieren su regla de desempate; no son pronósticos de transferencia de votos."],"metricas":{"escanos":1,"p10":0,"p90":6,"frecuencia_entrada":61.529999999999994},"fuentes":["https://www.boe.es/buscar/act.php?id=BOE-A-1985-11672#acientosesentaytres"],"preguntas_complementarias":[{"pregunta":"¿Su banda del 80 % incluye todos los resultados posibles?","respuesta":"Escenario de ElectoralLab a 25 de octubre de 2026. No. La banda de Podemos va de 0 a 6 diputados y corresponde a los percentiles 10 y 90. Obtiene al menos uno en el 61,5 % de las muestras."},{"pregunta":"¿En qué provincias obtiene diputados Podemos?","respuesta":"Escenario de ElectoralLab a 25 de octubre de 2026. Su columna independiente obtiene diputados centrales en Madrid: 1. Las aportaciones a listas conjuntas se cuentan en sus candidaturas receptoras."}],"siguiente_paso":{"texto":"Explora el reparto de Podemos en el mapa","url":"https://electorallab.com/elecciones.html?partido=PODEMOS#congreso","detalle":"Abre el mapa con esta candidatura destacada y consulta las provincias."}}