{"as_of":"2026-10-25","version":"integrada_20261025T050344Z_9f6148","generated_at":"2026-10-25T23:17:15+00:00","license":"https://electorallab.com/aviso-legal.html","metodologia":"https://electorallab.com/metodologia.html","simulaciones":10000,"pregunta":"¿Obtiene escaño SALF, el partido de Alvise, en el Congreso?","respuesta":"Según ElectoralLab, a 25 de octubre de 2026, Se Acabó La Fiesta obtiene 0 diputados en el central, con banda del 80 % de 0–3, y logra al menos uno en el 38,3 % de las simulaciones. Es una proyección sujeta a incertidumbre, no un resultado electoral.","fuente":"https://electorallab.com/entra-salf-alvise-en-el-congreso.html","cita":"ElectoralLab, «¿Obtiene escaño SALF, el partido de Alvise, en el Congreso?», 2026-10-25, https://electorallab.com/entra-salf-alvise-en-el-congreso.html.","columnas":["Provincia","Escaños centrales","Voto estimado","Subida hasta su siguiente escaño"],"filas":[[{"texto":"Madrid","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-madrid.html"},0,"1,79 %","1,21 pp"],[{"texto":"Barcelona","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-barcelona.html"},0,"1,68 %","1,32 pp"],[{"texto":"Valencia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-valencia.html"},0,"1,69 %","3,61 pp"],[{"texto":"Sevilla","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-sevilla.html"},0,"1,68 %","4,24 pp"],[{"texto":"Málaga","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-malaga.html"},0,"1,69 %","4,95 pp"],[{"texto":"Alicante","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-alicante.html"},0,"1,71 %","4,98 pp"],[{"texto":"Murcia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-murcia.html"},0,"1,71 %","5,79 pp"],[{"texto":"Bizkaia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-bizkaia.html"},0,"1,98 %","5,87 pp"],[{"texto":"Baleares","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-baleares.html"},0,"1,79 %","6,33 pp"],[{"texto":"Las Palmas","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-las-palmas.html"},0,"1,82 %","6,68 pp"],[{"texto":"Cádiz","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-cadiz.html"},0,"1,69 %","6,85 pp"],[{"texto":"A Coruña","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-a-coruna.html"},0,"1,71 %","6,87 pp"],[{"texto":"Pontevedra","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-pontevedra.html"},0,"1,72 %","7,24 pp"],[{"texto":"Asturias","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-asturias.html"},0,"1,79 %","7,50 pp"],[{"texto":"Santa Cruz de Tenerife","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-santa-cruz-de-tenerife.html"},0,"1,85 %","7,58 pp"],[{"texto":"Girona","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-girona.html"},0,"1,59 %","7,61 pp"],[{"texto":"Gipuzkoa","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-gipuzkoa.html"},0,"1,96 %","7,84 pp"],[{"texto":"Zaragoza","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-zaragoza.html"},0,"1,78 %","8,26 pp"],[{"texto":"Granada","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-granada.html"},0,"1,69 %","8,32 pp"],[{"texto":"Tarragona","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-tarragona.html"},0,"1,66 %","8,49 pp"],[{"texto":"Córdoba","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-cordoba.html"},0,"1,68 %","8,91 pp"],[{"texto":"Lleida","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-lleida.html"},0,"1,59 %","9,21 pp"],[{"texto":"Navarra","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-navarra.html"},0,"1,97 %","9,34 pp"],[{"texto":"Almería","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-almeria.html"},0,"1,63 %","9,63 pp"],[{"texto":"Toledo","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-toledo.html"},0,"1,70 %","10,51 pp"],[{"texto":"Álava","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-alava.html"},0,"1,92 %","10,54 pp"],[{"texto":"Valladolid","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-valladolid.html"},0,"1,75 %","10,65 pp"],[{"texto":"Cantabria","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-cantabria.html"},0,"1,77 %","10,87 pp"],[{"texto":"Castellón","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-castellon.html"},0,"1,70 %","11,54 pp"],[{"texto":"Huelva","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-huelva.html"},0,"1,70 %","11,58 pp"],[{"texto":"Jaén","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-jaen.html"},0,"1,72 %","11,83 pp"],[{"texto":"Ciudad Real","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-ciudad-real.html"},0,"1,71 %","11,87 pp"],[{"texto":"La Rioja","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-la-rioja.html"},0,"1,75 %","12,28 pp"],[{"texto":"Ourense","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-ourense.html"},0,"1,65 %","12,53 pp"],[{"texto":"Lugo","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-lugo.html"},0,"1,64 %","12,59 pp"],[{"texto":"Badajoz","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-badajoz.html"},0,"1,77 %","12,91 pp"],[{"texto":"León","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-leon.html"},0,"1,70 %","13,64 pp"],[{"texto":"Cáceres","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-caceres.html"},0,"1,76 %","14,04 pp"],[{"texto":"Huesca","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-huesca.html"},0,"1,78 %","14,53 pp"],[{"texto":"Teruel","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-teruel.html"},0,"1,38 %","14,54 pp"],[{"texto":"Albacete","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-albacete.html"},0,"1,71 %","14,92 pp"],[{"texto":"Burgos","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-burgos.html"},0,"1,78 %","14,99 pp"],[{"texto":"Palencia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-palencia.html"},0,"1,75 %","15,39 pp"],[{"texto":"Zamora","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-zamora.html"},0,"1,75 %","16,24 pp"],[{"texto":"Segovia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-segovia.html"},0,"1,74 %","16,53 pp"],[{"texto":"Cuenca","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-cuenca.html"},0,"1,70 %","16,72 pp"],[{"texto":"Salamanca","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-salamanca.html"},0,"1,72 %","16,87 pp"],[{"texto":"Ávila","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-avila.html"},0,"1,67 %","17,07 pp"],[{"texto":"Soria","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-soria.html"},0,"1,65 %","18,63 pp"],[{"texto":"Guadalajara","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-guadalajara.html"},0,"1,72 %","19,79 pp"],[{"texto":"Ceuta","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-ceuta.html"},0,"1,62 %","24,93 pp"],[{"texto":"Melilla","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-melilla.html"},0,"1,76 %","30,27 pp"]],"contexto":["La banda es un intervalo central, no todos los resultados posibles. La entrada se calcula sobre las mismas muestras conjuntas del Congreso.","La menor subida mecánica para su primer escaño aparece en Madrid: aproximadamente 1,21 puntos de su porcentaje. No es la misma magnitud que ser el aspirante global al último escaño publicado.","Sensibilidad mecánica: se elevan sólo los votos de la candidatura indicada, se conservan los votos absolutos de las demás y se renormaliza el voto válido. La subida se expresa en puntos de su porcentaje resultante. Se reevalúa la barrera del 3 %; en Ceuta y Melilla se aplica la regla del más votado. Los márgenes se redondean y los empates requieren su regla de desempate; no son pronósticos de transferencia de votos."],"metricas":{"escanos":0,"p10":0,"p90":3,"frecuencia_entrada":38.29},"fuentes":["https://www.boe.es/buscar/act.php?id=BOE-A-1985-11672#acientosesentaytres"],"preguntas_complementarias":[{"pregunta":"¿Cero diputados centrales descarta que SALF entre?","respuesta":"Escenario de ElectoralLab a 25 de octubre de 2026. No. Su central es 0, pero obtiene al menos un diputado en el 38,3 % de las muestras. Un reparto central y una frecuencia de entrada son medidas diferentes."},{"pregunta":"¿Dónde está SALF más cerca de conseguir un diputado?","respuesta":"Escenario de ElectoralLab a 25 de octubre de 2026. Madrid: la subida mecánica más pequeña hasta su siguiente diputado es 1,21 pp. Se elevan sólo sus votos y se conservan los de los demás; no es una predicción de transferencia."}],"siguiente_paso":{"texto":"Explora el reparto de Se Acabó La Fiesta en el mapa","url":"https://electorallab.com/elecciones.html?partido=SALF#congreso","detalle":"Abre el mapa con esta candidatura destacada y consulta las provincias."}}