{"as_of":"2026-10-25","version":"integrada_20261025T050344Z_9f6148","generated_at":"2026-10-25T23:17:15+00:00","license":"https://electorallab.com/aviso-legal.html","metodologia":"https://electorallab.com/metodologia.html","simulaciones":10000,"pregunta":"¿Cuántos escaños cambiarían para la izquierda si Frente Amplio y Podemos unieran sus listas?","respuesta":"Según ElectoralLab, a 25 de octubre de 2026, unir hipotéticamente las listas de Frente Amplio y Podemos, sin cambiar sus votos, llevaría al conjunto de la izquierda de 137 a 142 diputados: diferencia de +5. Es una hipótesis mecánica con los votos fijos, sin estimar cambios de comportamiento electoral.","fuente":"https://electorallab.com/escanos-que-pierde-la-izquierda-por-ir-dividida.html","cita":"ElectoralLab, «¿Cuántos escaños cambiarían para la izquierda si Frente Amplio y Podemos unieran sus listas?», 2026-10-25, https://electorallab.com/escanos-que-pierde-la-izquierda-por-ir-dividida.html.","columnas":["Provincia","FA + Podemos separados","Lista hipotética conjunta","Cambio de esa suma","Cambio de todas las izquierdas"],"filas":[[{"texto":"Álava","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-alava.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Albacete","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-albacete.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Alicante","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-alicante.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Almería","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-almeria.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Ávila","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-avila.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Badajoz","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-badajoz.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Baleares","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-baleares.html"},0,1,"+1","+1"],[{"texto":"Barcelona","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-barcelona.html"},2,2,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Burgos","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-burgos.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Cáceres","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-caceres.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Cádiz","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-cadiz.html"},0,1,"+1","+0"],[{"texto":"Castellón","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-castellon.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Ciudad Real","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-ciudad-real.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Córdoba","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-cordoba.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"A Coruña","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-a-coruna.html"},0,1,"+1","+1"],[{"texto":"Cuenca","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-cuenca.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Girona","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-girona.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Granada","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-granada.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Guadalajara","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-guadalajara.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Gipuzkoa","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-gipuzkoa.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Huelva","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-huelva.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Huesca","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-huesca.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Jaén","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-jaen.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"León","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-leon.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Lleida","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-lleida.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"La Rioja","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-la-rioja.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Lugo","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-lugo.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Madrid","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-madrid.html"},4,4,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Málaga","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-malaga.html"},0,1,"+1","+1"],[{"texto":"Murcia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-murcia.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Navarra","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-navarra.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Ourense","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-ourense.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Asturias","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-asturias.html"},0,1,"+1","+1"],[{"texto":"Palencia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-palencia.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Las Palmas","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-las-palmas.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Pontevedra","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-pontevedra.html"},0,1,"+1","+1"],[{"texto":"Salamanca","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-salamanca.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Santa Cruz de Tenerife","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-santa-cruz-de-tenerife.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Cantabria","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-cantabria.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Segovia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-segovia.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Sevilla","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-sevilla.html"},1,1,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Soria","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-soria.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Tarragona","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-tarragona.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Teruel","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-teruel.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Toledo","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-toledo.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Valencia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-valencia.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Valladolid","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-valladolid.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Bizkaia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-bizkaia.html"},0,1,"+1","+0"],[{"texto":"Zamora","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-zamora.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Zaragoza","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-zaragoza.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Ceuta","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-ceuta.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Melilla","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-melilla.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],["España",7,14,"+7","+5"]],"contexto":["Es un contrafactual mecánico del reparto central: se suman los votos de las dos columnas y se aplica de nuevo D’Hondt, conservando los demás. No estima participación, movilización ni transferencia de voto, y no altera el escenario publicado.","El escenario ya integra candidaturas conjuntas o aportaciones de Podemos a otras listas en la Comunitat Valenciana, Canarias y Cataluña. No se deshacen esos supuestos ni se cuenta dos veces ese voto. La posible ganancia de la lista conjunta puede proceder de otro partido de la izquierda; por eso las dos diferencias de la tabla no equivalen.","No se asigna una nueva frecuencia de mayoría ni una banda de incertidumbre a esta hipótesis: sólo se transforma el central."],"metricas":{"separado":7,"conjunto":14,"izquierda_antes":137,"izquierda_despues":142},"fuentes":["https://www.boe.es/buscar/act.php?id=BOE-A-1985-11672#acientosesentaytres"],"preguntas_complementarias":[{"pregunta":"¿Cuál es el efecto provincial de unir esas candidaturas?","respuesta":"Escenario de ElectoralLab a 25 de octubre de 2026. Hay 7 provincias con cambio en los escaños de la lista o del conjunto de la izquierda. Algunos cambios de la lista: Baleares: +1; Cádiz: +1; A Coruña: +1; Málaga: +1. La tabla distingue ambas magnitudes por provincia."},{"pregunta":"¿Gana lo mismo la lista conjunta que el conjunto de la izquierda?","respuesta":"Escenario de ElectoralLab a 25 de octubre de 2026. La lista conjunta cambia +7 diputados; todas las izquierdas cambian +5. No son la misma medida: algunos escaños de la nueva lista pueden proceder de otras candidaturas del mismo bloque."}],"siguiente_paso":{"texto":"Explora Baleares en el mapa","url":"https://electorallab.com/elecciones.html?provincia=07#congreso","detalle":"El mapa conserva las candidaturas del escenario publicado. La unión hipotética se calcula sólo en la tabla de esta página."}}