{"as_of":"2026-10-25","version":"integrada_20261025T050344Z_9f6148","generated_at":"2026-10-25T23:17:15+00:00","license":"https://electorallab.com/aviso-legal.html","metodologia":"https://electorallab.com/metodologia.html","simulaciones":10000,"pregunta":"¿Qué pasaría si Frente Amplio y Podemos fueran juntos?","respuesta":"Según ElectoralLab, a 25 de octubre de 2026, manteniendo exactamente el voto estimado de cada provincia, una unión hipotética de Frente Amplio y Podemos obtendría 14 diputados frente a 7 separados: diferencia de +7. Es una hipótesis mecánica con los votos fijos, sin estimar cambios de comportamiento electoral.","fuente":"https://electorallab.com/que-pasa-si-sumar-y-podemos-van-juntos.html","cita":"ElectoralLab, «¿Qué pasaría si Frente Amplio y Podemos fueran juntos?», 2026-10-25, https://electorallab.com/que-pasa-si-sumar-y-podemos-van-juntos.html.","columnas":["Provincia","FA + Podemos separados","Lista hipotética conjunta","Cambio de esa suma","Cambio de todas las izquierdas"],"filas":[[{"texto":"Álava","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-alava.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Albacete","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-albacete.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Alicante","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-alicante.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Almería","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-almeria.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Ávila","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-avila.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Badajoz","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-badajoz.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Baleares","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-baleares.html"},0,1,"+1","+1"],[{"texto":"Barcelona","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-barcelona.html"},2,2,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Burgos","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-burgos.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Cáceres","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-caceres.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Cádiz","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-cadiz.html"},0,1,"+1","+0"],[{"texto":"Castellón","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-castellon.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Ciudad Real","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-ciudad-real.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Córdoba","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-cordoba.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"A Coruña","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-a-coruna.html"},0,1,"+1","+1"],[{"texto":"Cuenca","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-cuenca.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Girona","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-girona.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Granada","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-granada.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Guadalajara","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-guadalajara.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Gipuzkoa","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-gipuzkoa.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Huelva","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-huelva.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Huesca","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-huesca.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Jaén","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-jaen.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"León","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-leon.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Lleida","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-lleida.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"La Rioja","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-la-rioja.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Lugo","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-lugo.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Madrid","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-madrid.html"},4,4,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Málaga","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-malaga.html"},0,1,"+1","+1"],[{"texto":"Murcia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-murcia.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Navarra","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-navarra.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Ourense","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-ourense.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Asturias","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-asturias.html"},0,1,"+1","+1"],[{"texto":"Palencia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-palencia.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Las Palmas","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-las-palmas.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Pontevedra","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-pontevedra.html"},0,1,"+1","+1"],[{"texto":"Salamanca","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-salamanca.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Santa Cruz de Tenerife","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-santa-cruz-de-tenerife.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Cantabria","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-cantabria.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Segovia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-segovia.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Sevilla","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-sevilla.html"},1,1,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Soria","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-soria.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Tarragona","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-tarragona.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Teruel","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-teruel.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Toledo","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-toledo.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Valencia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-valencia.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Valladolid","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-valladolid.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Bizkaia","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-bizkaia.html"},0,1,"+1","+0"],[{"texto":"Zamora","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-zamora.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Zaragoza","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-zaragoza.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Ceuta","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-ceuta.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],[{"texto":"Melilla","url":"https://electorallab.com/congreso-melilla.html"},0,0,"+0","+0"],["España",7,14,"+7","+5"]],"contexto":["Es un contrafactual mecánico del reparto central: se suman los votos de las dos columnas y se aplica de nuevo D’Hondt, conservando los demás. No estima participación, movilización ni transferencia de voto, y no altera el escenario publicado.","El escenario ya integra candidaturas conjuntas o aportaciones de Podemos a otras listas en la Comunitat Valenciana, Canarias y Cataluña. No se deshacen esos supuestos ni se cuenta dos veces ese voto. La posible ganancia de la lista conjunta puede proceder de otro partido de la izquierda; por eso las dos diferencias de la tabla no equivalen.","No se asigna una nueva frecuencia de mayoría ni una banda de incertidumbre a esta hipótesis: sólo se transforma el central."],"metricas":{"separado":7,"conjunto":14,"izquierda_antes":137,"izquierda_despues":142},"fuentes":["https://www.boe.es/buscar/act.php?id=BOE-A-1985-11672#acientosesentaytres"],"preguntas_complementarias":[{"pregunta":"¿Cuántos escaños sacarían Sumar y Podemos en una lista conjunta?","respuesta":"Escenario de ElectoralLab a 25 de octubre de 2026. La lista hipotética obtiene 14 diputados frente a 7 de las dos columnas separadas: diferencia de +7. Se mantienen los acuerdos territoriales ya incorporados al escenario."},{"pregunta":"¿Qué cambia al unir las dos listas manteniendo sus votos?","respuesta":"Escenario de ElectoralLab a 25 de octubre de 2026. El conjunto de la izquierda pasa de 137 a 142 diputados. Su cambio puede diferir de la ganancia de la lista conjunta porque ésta también puede obtener escaños de otras candidaturas de la izquierda. No se calcula una nueva banda ni frecuencia."}],"siguiente_paso":{"texto":"Explora Baleares en el mapa","url":"https://electorallab.com/elecciones.html?provincia=07#congreso","detalle":"El mapa conserva las candidaturas del escenario publicado. La unión hipotética se calcula sólo en la tabla de esta página."}}